CIS Aims for 23 Gigawatts of Wind and Solar by 2030
Decarbonising electricity remains a significant challenge in Australia. While we have encountered numerous hurdles along the way, we have largely kept up a steady pace. However, the question arises: is this pace sufficient?
Utilising data from Global Roam’s NEM Review and applying a 180-day moving average—which provides a slight lag but also highlights seasonal trends—we can clearly observe our progress and the distance still to cover. Currently, we have not yet reached the halfway mark.
Forecasting Future Developments
For those interested, ITK’s forecasting model predicts how this figure will evolve in the coming years. This projection combines historical data, as illustrated above, with ITK’s half-hourly forecasts derived from our modelling.
Key Policy Drivers and Targets
The primary policy driver leading up to 2030 is the Federal Government’s Capacity Investment Scheme. This initiative includes separate tenders for dispatchable power—primarily batteries—and energy, with a strong emphasis on the latter. The scheme aims for 23 GW of new wind and solar capacity to be operational by 2030.
Despite previously stating on our weekly Energy Insiders podcast that none of the capacity awarded in the initial 6 GW tender had reached Final Investment Decision (FID), I was recently informed by an expert that two solar projects have indeed achieved this milestone. One is a smaller solar initiative (Mokoan) that is already operational, while a larger project (Goulburn River) has commenced construction.
Tracking Progress Towards the 23 GW Target
In light of this information, here is the ITK version of the tracker for the CIS 23 GW target by 2030.
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David Leitch
David Leitch is a regular contributor to Renew Economy and co-host of the weekly Energy Insiders Podcast. He serves as the principal at ITK, where he focuses on electricity, gas, and decarbonisation analysis, drawing from 33 years of experience in stockbroking research and analysis for firms such as UBS and JPMorgan.
