Rooftop Solar Market Mid-Year Slump
Australia’s rooftop solar market has encountered a mid-year slowdown, witnessing a significant drop in monthly installation figures following the peak numbers recorded in May.
Recent data from industry analyst SunWiz reveals that national market volumes in June 2024 decreased by 15% compared to the previous month, marking the lowest monthly installations since January, although similar to June 2023 levels.
Decline in Installation Volumes
In June, Australian homes and businesses installed a total of 248MW of rooftop solar, a decrease from the record-breaking 292MW installed across the country in May, which set a new benchmark for the month.
SunWiz’s managing director, Warwick Johnston, attributes the softening market to reduced leads, proposals, and sales, which have now impacted system registrations.
Lower customer engagement and leads have contributed to solar retailers reporting sluggish business activities, potentially linked to the broader economic challenges facing Australia.
Market Trends and Year-to-Date Performance
Speculation arises whether May’s exceptional performance was an anomaly, with June serving as a corrective phase. Historical data indicates that both 2022 and 2023 experienced an upturn in installation rates during July.
Year-to-date, 2024’s performance falls between the record-breaking year of 2021, with 3.23GW total installs, and 2023, which narrowly missed surpassing the 2021 record.
Examining the June 2024 data, SunWiz highlights a decline in installation volumes across all states, with Queensland experiencing the smallest drop at 12%.
South Australia faced a substantial 21% decrease, while New South Wales and Victoria closely followed the national average decline at 15%.
System Sizes and Commercial Influence
The average system size reached a new high of 9.9kW, potentially influenced by the residential sector’s significant decline in installations, giving commercial installations a more substantial impact on the average system size.
Notably, there was a 20% reduction in 6-8kW system installations and a 15% dip in 10-15kW system installs in June.
Although a brief surge was observed in smaller system installations last month, particularly in the sub-3kW and 4-6kW segments, this trend was short-lived.
Commercial-scale systems in the 50-75kW range were the only rooftop PV segment that experienced growth in June, according to the report.
Despite the challenges faced by the residential and commercial sectors, the Australian rooftop solar market continues to adapt to changing dynamics, reflecting the broader economic landscape.
