Rooftop solar slump persists amid battery rebate anticipation
Australia’s rooftop solar market continues to experience a slowdown, now entering its fifth consecutive month, as the eagerly awaited launch of the federal home battery rebate in July hampers investment in new home PV systems nationwide. Recent data from Australian solar consultancy SunWiz indicates that in May, households and businesses collectively added approximately 235MW of new rooftop solar capacity. While this represents a slight uptick from the previous month, it falls significantly below the typical expectations for this time of year.
According to SunWiz, the volume of small-scale solar PV installations (0-100kW) in April saw a 6 per cent increase compared to the preceding month. However, this growth was subdued due to the impact of Easter, school holidays, and Anzac Day. The mere 6 per cent rise in May falls well short of the usual post-April rebound, as noted by SunWiz.
Slow Growth Compared to Previous Years
The 235MW of rooftop solar installed in May marked an 11 per cent increase from the same period in 2022. Nevertheless, it lags behind the installation levels witnessed in May of 2023 and 2024, both of which hovered around the 260MW mark. Consequently, the total rooftop solar installed in the first five months of 2025 has decreased by approximately 8 per cent compared to the corresponding period last year.
Regional Variances in Installation Volumes
On a state-by-state basis, rooftop solar installations rebounded in all regions except South Australia and Tasmania, where figures declined by 5 per cent and 1 per cent, respectively. In contrast, the Northern Territory experienced the most significant rebound, with rooftop solar installations increasing by about 30 per cent compared to April. However, SunWiz notes that even this surge only represents a modest nominal rise.
Several factors are believed to contribute to the subdued rooftop solar installations witnessed this year. SunWiz highlights the anticipation surrounding the upcoming federal battery rebate, the recent federal election, the impacts of Cyclone Alfred, and heavy rainfall along the East Coast as key drivers. The impending federal battery rebate is causing delays in many PV installations, as customers seeking both solar panels and batteries opt to wait until the rebate is available on 1st July. In the interim, retailers seem more focused on sales generation rather than advancing installations. Moreover, lingering effects of the election, Cyclone Alfred, and persistent heavy rainfall, coupled with STC registration delays, are further impeding reported activity.
