Solar Dominance: Unlocking Australia’s Rooftop Revolution
Green Energy Markets has been providing projections of solar PV and stationary battery system installations for the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) for the past four years. These projections play a crucial role in informing AEMO’s Integrated System Plan and Statement of Opportunities for the National Electricity Market (NEM) and the Western Australian SWIS.
The most recent projections revealed staggering numbers for the cumulative solar and battery capacity expected to be installed on rooftops across households and businesses in Australia.
Projections for the NEM States
The projections for residential and commercial solar PV capacity below 100 kilowatts in the NEM states under different scenarios are noteworthy. Even under the most pessimistic scenario of Progressive Change, a substantial capacity of around 66,000MW is anticipated by 2053/54. In more optimistic scenarios like Step Change and Green Energy Exports, where significant government efforts are assumed to combat global warming, the projected capacity reaches around 98,000MW. However, it is important to highlight that these higher capacity levels are based on the assumption of additional new government policies that are yet to be implemented.
Comparison with Current Capacity
These projections far exceed the current levels of installed capacity in the NEM from coal, gas, and hydro power plants combined, which is approximately 41,
