Solar Energy Dominance: Predictions for 2035

As the year 2025 unfolds with dramatic events such as wildfires in Los Angeles, the return of Trump to the White House, and an impending election in Australia that could impact climate and renewable energy policies, one constant source of hope shines through – solar photovoltaic (PV) technology.

This innovative technology, largely credited to Australian researchers and universities for its modern success, continues to dominate the global energy landscape. It is expanding at a remarkable rate, surpassing expectations by becoming more affordable, efficient, and quicker to implement.

Global Solar Capacity Reaches New Heights

Recent estimates from the Global Solar Council and SolarPower Europe reveal a significant milestone in November last year when the world achieved a cumulative total of 2 terawatts (TW) of installed solar capacity. This achievement came just two years after reaching the first terawatt mark, which had taken 68 years to accomplish.

In Australia, rooftop solar alone plays a crucial role in supplying the majority of daytime power in South Australia’s grid. Additionally, in other state networks, it is poised to take on a similar role.

The Impressive Growth Trajectory of Solar Energy

Despite these advancements, the question remains: can solar energy sustain its current pace of growth? Will it be able to accelerate its expansion to meet the escalating demand for renewable energy and achieve critical climate targets?

According to a newly introduced climate modelling tool, the answer is a resounding ‘yes.’ The S-Curve model, developed by Australian solar industry pioneer Andrew Birch, forecasts that by 2035, half of the world’s energy requirements will be met by solar energy in a transformative technology shift.

The Vision of a Solar-Powered Future

Birch’s model projects that solar energy will continue to decrease in cost by 10% annually and grow by 25% each year. This trajectory is expected to surpass nuclear power this year and outpace oil by 2031.

With solar energy on track to potentially replace 50% of traditional energy sources within the next decade, Birch emphasises the urgency for a shift away from financing coal, oil, and gas.

Andrew Birch, a prominent figure in the solar industry, highlights three critical misconceptions that have clouded energy market forecasting related to solar energy. He challenges the notion that solar cost reductions will suddenly halt, emphasising the consistent growth trend of the market.

Moreover, Birch advocates for a revised approach that considers the delivered energy metric, rather than primary energy, to accurately project the energy landscape. By factoring in electrification and the evolving growth trends of solar energy, Birch envisions a solar-dominated energy system within the next decade.

Policies Driving Solar Energy Transition

To accelerate the transition to a solar-driven renewable energy landscape, Birch underscores the importance of implementing the right policies. These policies include enabling fair competition for solar, storage, and electric vehicles based on price, digitising and automating permitting processes, and establishing an “Electric Protocol” for uniform market treatment of all energy sources connecting to the grid.

Ultimately, Birch’s message resonates with the inevitability of a solar-powered shift towards renewables driven by economic factors rather than solely environmental concerns. The S-Curve model challenges the prevailing belief in fossil fuel dominance, highlighting the economic advantages of solar energy for end consumers.

As the world navigates towards a cleaner energy future, Birch’s insights and advocacy for solar energy offer a compelling vision for a sustainable and cost-effective energy transition.